The future of TV?

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There’s a big article today in The New York Times about how non-traditional TV broadcast companies are moving into programming.  Netflix, for instance, is spending $100 on a Kevin Spacey, Robin Wright production called House of Cars. Amazon, Microsoft and others are following suit, producing their own original entertainment.   I visited my son in college and his roommate has Google TV.  To say searching for TV shows and movies using a Google interface is easy would be an understatement. Check it out.  

It will be a dog fight between the TV and cable companies and these new breed, onesy-twosy production companies but one way for the latter to change the game is to rethink the commercial pod. Paid commercials will live on. Good TV production is too expensive to be paid for solely by subscription, so the question is how do we reinvent the commercial break in a way that is more palatable?  Less of them would be a good move. Not so many breaks, another. Contextual spots are an idea. I’m thinking 2 commercial breaks for every 30 minute program. At the 10 and 20 minute marks. For a 60 minute show, three breaks at 12, 30, 48 minute marks.  The price the spots accordingly, abased on supply and demand.  Also don’t allow fast forwarding.

Speaking of fast forward, if we were to zap ahead 30 years, what do you think TV will look like. Will ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox still be around? Thoughts? What say you Reed Hasting?